Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
