Just 60 days ago when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
